SV Werder Bremen


1 : 2

FC Schalke 04


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

41%

Draw

26%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

84%

Draw

12%

Away win

4%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.3 0.5
Diff 1.0 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 41% 26% 33%
Observed-shots-based 84% 12% 4%
Diff 44% -15% -29%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 72 15 31 96
Defence 69 4 28 85
Overall 78 2 22 98


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