Brighton and Hove Albion


0 : 2

Leicester City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

30%

Draw

27%

Away win

43%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

5%

Draw

11%

Away win

84%

Away Goals

3.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.3
Observed-shots-based 0.9 3.0
Diff -0.2 1.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 30% 27% 43%
Observed-shots-based 5% 11% 84%
Diff -25% -16% 41%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 45 19 81 27
Defence 19 73 55 81
Overall 21 51 79 49


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