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Home Goals
1.1
Home win
30%
Draw
27%
Away win
43%
Away Goals
1.3
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
0.9
Home win
5%
Draw
11%
Away win
84%
Away Goals
3.0
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Observed-shots-based | 0.9 | 3.0 |
Diff | -0.2 | 1.6 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Observed-shots-based | 5% | 11% | 84% |
Diff | -25% | -16% | 41% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 45 | 19 | 81 | 27 | |
Defence | 19 | 73 | 55 | 81 | |
Overall | 21 | 51 | 79 | 49 |
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