Borussia Dortmund


3 : 3

SC Paderborn


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.7

Home win

69%

Draw

16%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

63%

Draw

21%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

1.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.7 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.2 1.1
Diff -0.5 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 69% 16% 15%
Observed-shots-based 63% 21% 16%
Diff -6% 5% 1%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 42 73 49 96
Defence 51 4 58 27
Overall 44 26 56 74


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