Wolverhampton Wanderers


2 : 1

Aston Villa


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

57%

Draw

23%

Away win

20%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

74%

Draw

17%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.2 0.7
Diff 0.4 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 57% 23% 20%
Observed-shots-based 74% 17% 9%
Diff 18% -6% -12%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 59 47 43 67
Defence 57 33 41 53
Overall 62 38 38 62


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek