Rennes


3 : 1

Amiens


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

47%

Draw

28%

Away win

25%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.9

Home win

95%

Draw

3%

Away win

1%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 0.9
Observed-shots-based 3.9 0.7
Diff 2.5 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 28% 25%
Observed-shots-based 95% 3% 1%
Diff 48% -24% -24%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 91 29 44 68
Defence 56 32 9 71
Overall 89 24 11 76


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