Cagliari


5 : 2

Fiorentina


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

27%

Draw

27%

Away win

47%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

64%

Draw

21%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

1.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.4
Observed-shots-based 2.2 1.2
Diff 1.2 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 27% 27% 47%
Observed-shots-based 64% 21% 16%
Diff 37% -6% -31%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 78 98 45 78
Defence 55 22 22 2
Overall 74 89 26 11


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