Montpellier


3 : 0

Toulouse


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

53%

Draw

26%

Away win

21%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

46%

Draw

35%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.1 0.7
Diff -0.5 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 26% 21%
Observed-shots-based 46% 35% 19%
Diff -7% 9% -2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 39 98 45 23
Defence 55 77 61 2
Overall 45 99 55 1


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