Marseille


2 : 1

Lyon


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

33%

Draw

25%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

33%

Draw

31%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.5
Observed-shots-based 1.3 1.4
Diff -0.0 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 25% 42%
Observed-shots-based 33% 31% 36%
Diff 0% 5% -5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 52 80 48 40
Defence 52 60 48 20
Overall 52 78 48 22


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