Juventus


1 : 0

Milan


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

59%

Draw

24%

Away win

17%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

50%

Draw

31%

Away win

18%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 0.8
Observed-shots-based 1.2 0.6
Diff -0.5 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 59% 24% 17%
Observed-shots-based 50% 31% 18%
Diff -9% 7% 1%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 39 48 45 27
Defence 55 73 61 52
Overall 44 64 56 36


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