Eibar


0 : 4

Real Madrid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

30%

Draw

24%

Away win

45%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

6%

Draw

13%

Away win

81%

Away Goals

2.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.6
Observed-shots-based 1.1 2.8
Diff -0.2 1.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 30% 24% 45%
Observed-shots-based 6% 13% 81%
Diff -24% -12% 36%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 45 16 76 84
Defence 24 16 55 84
Overall 26 7 74 93


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