Hertha BSC


2 : 4

RB Leipzig


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

26%

Draw

22%

Away win

51%

Away Goals

1.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.4

Home win

4%

Draw

15%

Away win

81%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.9
Observed-shots-based 0.4 1.9
Diff -0.9 -0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 26% 22% 51%
Observed-shots-based 4% 15% 81%
Diff -22% -7% 29%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 26 97 51 97
Defence 49 3 74 3
Overall 34 33 66 67


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