Brest


1 : 2

Paris Saint Germain


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

10%

Draw

15%

Away win

75%

Away Goals

2.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

14%

Draw

18%

Away win

68%

Away Goals

2.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 0.8 2.6
Observed-shots-based 1.2 2.4
Diff 0.3 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 10% 15% 75%
Observed-shots-based 14% 18% 68%
Diff 4% 3% -7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 59 49 48 41
Defence 52 59 41 51
Overall 57 56 43 44


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