Norwich City


0 : 2

Watford


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

42%

Draw

23%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

24%

Draw

29%

Away win

47%

Away Goals

1.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.6
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.3
Diff -0.8 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 42% 23% 36%
Observed-shots-based 24% 29% 47%
Diff -17% 6% 12%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 31 20 44 74
Defence 56 26 69 80
Overall 40 13 60 87


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