Sassuolo


3 : 1

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

36%

Draw

25%

Away win

39%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

61%

Draw

22%

Away win

17%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.4
Observed-shots-based 2.0 1.0
Diff 0.6 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 36% 25% 39%
Observed-shots-based 61% 22% 17%
Diff 25% -3% -22%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 64 79 41 53
Defence 59 47 36 21
Overall 67 75 33 25


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