Verona


2 : 1

Brescia


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

40%

Draw

26%

Away win

34%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

20%

Draw

26%

Away win

54%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.2
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.5
Diff -0.5 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 40% 26% 34%
Observed-shots-based 20% 26% 54%
Diff -19% -0% 20%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 39 87 58 35
Defence 42 65 61 13
Overall 36 87 64 13


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek