Milan


1 : 2

Lazio


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

39%

Draw

26%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

33%

Draw

35%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.3
Observed-shots-based 0.8 0.8
Diff -0.5 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 39% 26% 35%
Observed-shots-based 33% 35% 33%
Diff -6% 9% -2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 37 60 39 88
Defence 61 12 63 40
Overall 48 21 52 79


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