Metz


2 : 2

Montpellier


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

30%

Draw

30%

Away win

40%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

41%

Draw

30%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 0.9 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.0
Diff 0.2 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 30% 30% 40%
Observed-shots-based 41% 30% 29%
Diff 11% 0% -11%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 57 79 47 84
Defence 53 16 43 21
Overall 58 44 42 56


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