Bayer 04 Leverkusen


1 : 2

Borussia Mönchengladbach


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

50%

Draw

22%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

35%

Draw

22%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

2.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 1.4
Observed-shots-based 2.2 2.3
Diff 0.3 0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 22% 28%
Observed-shots-based 35% 22% 42%
Diff -14% 0% 14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 57 20 72 41
Defence 28 59 43 80
Overall 40 32 60 68


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