Brighton and Hove Albion


2 : 0

Norwich City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

46%

Draw

24%

Away win

30%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.1

Home win

88%

Draw

8%

Away win

3%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.3
Observed-shots-based 3.1 0.6
Diff 1.4 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 46% 24% 30%
Observed-shots-based 88% 8% 3%
Diff 42% -15% -27%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 75 26 31 27
Defence 69 73 25 74
Overall 81 40 19 60


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