Bologna


2 : 1

Sampdoria


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

51%

Draw

24%

Away win

25%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

70%

Draw

21%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.8 0.6
Diff 0.1 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 51% 24% 25%
Observed-shots-based 70% 21% 9%
Diff 19% -3% -15%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 54 59 37 70
Defence 63 30 46 41
Overall 61 46 39 54


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