Norwich City


1 : 3

Manchester United


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

26%

Draw

22%

Away win

52%

Away Goals

1.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

4%

Draw

8%

Away win

87%

Away Goals

3.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.9
Observed-shots-based 1.2 3.7
Diff -0.0 1.8

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 26% 22% 52%
Observed-shots-based 4% 8% 87%
Diff -22% -14% 35%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 50 44 82 33
Defence 18 67 50 56
Overall 23 60 77 40


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