Watford


0 : 0

Bournemouth


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

46%

Draw

23%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.7

Home win

25%

Draw

34%

Away win

41%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.4
Observed-shots-based 0.7 1.0
Diff -1.1 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 46% 23% 31%
Observed-shots-based 25% 34% 41%
Diff -20% 11% 10%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 26 23 40 17
Defence 60 83 74 77
Overall 39 58 61 42


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