Lyon


0 : 0

Dijon


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

72%

Draw

18%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.8

Home win

82%

Draw

12%

Away win

5%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.2 0.7
Observed-shots-based 2.8 0.8
Diff 0.6 0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 72% 18% 11%
Observed-shots-based 82% 12% 5%
Diff 10% -5% -5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 62 2 54 19
Defence 46 81 38 98
Overall 59 12 41 88


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