Juventus


2 : 1

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

57%

Draw

24%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

65%

Draw

19%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

1.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 0.8
Observed-shots-based 2.5 1.3
Diff 0.8 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 57% 24% 19%
Observed-shots-based 65% 19% 16%
Diff 8% -5% -3%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 67 39 64 41
Defence 36 59 33 61
Overall 56 47 44 53


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