Getafe


2 : 0

Leganés


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

50%

Draw

28%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.5

Home win

23%

Draw

46%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 0.8
Observed-shots-based 0.5 0.6
Diff -0.9 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 28% 22%
Observed-shots-based 23% 46% 31%
Diff -27% 18% 9%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 27 97 44 27
Defence 56 73 73 3
Overall 36 98 64 2


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