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Home Goals
1.4
Home win
50%
Draw
28%
Away win
22%
Away Goals
0.8
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
0.5
Home win
23%
Draw
46%
Away win
31%
Away Goals
0.6
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
Observed-shots-based | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Diff | -0.9 | -0.2 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Observed-shots-based | 23% | 46% | 31% |
Diff | -27% | 18% | 9% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 27 | 97 | 44 | 27 | |
Defence | 56 | 73 | 73 | 3 | |
Overall | 36 | 98 | 64 | 2 |
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