Aston Villa


2 : 1

Brighton and Hove Albion


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

47%

Draw

25%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.3

Home win

76%

Draw

13%

Away win

10%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.1
Observed-shots-based 3.3 1.5
Diff 1.8 0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 25% 27%
Observed-shots-based 76% 13% 10%
Diff 28% -12% -17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 82 20 60 37
Defence 40 63 18 80
Overall 71 34 29 66


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