SV Werder Bremen


1 : 1

Hertha BSC


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

45%

Draw

24%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

66%

Draw

25%

Away win

10%

Away Goals

0.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.5 0.4
Diff -0.1 -0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 45% 24% 31%
Observed-shots-based 66% 25% 10%
Diff 21% 0% -21%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 49 37 27 78
Defence 73 22 51 63
Overall 64 22 36 78


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