Eintracht Frankfurt


3 : 0

Bayer 04 Leverkusen


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

39%

Draw

24%

Away win

37%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.6

Home win

57%

Draw

20%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 1.5
Observed-shots-based 2.6 1.8
Diff 1.0 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 39% 24% 37%
Observed-shots-based 57% 20% 23%
Diff 18% -4% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 72 65 57 7
Defence 43 93 28 35
Overall 62 90 38 10


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