VfL Wolfsburg


1 : 0

1. FC Union Berlin


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

54%

Draw

25%

Away win

21%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

67%

Draw

22%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.8 0.6
Diff 0.2 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 54% 25% 21%
Observed-shots-based 67% 22% 11%
Diff 14% -3% -10%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 54 30 42 26
Defence 58 74 46 70
Overall 59 47 41 53


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