Montpellier


3 : 1

Monaco


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

42%

Draw

27%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

65%

Draw

20%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

1.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.4 1.3
Diff 1.0 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 42% 27% 31%
Observed-shots-based 65% 20% 16%
Diff 23% -7% -16%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 73 70 55 43
Defence 45 57 27 30
Overall 65 71 35 29


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