Brighton and Hove Albion


3 : 0

Tottenham Hotspur


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

25%

Draw

25%

Away win

50%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.0

Home win

91%

Draw

7%

Away win

2%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.6
Observed-shots-based 3.0 0.6
Diff 2.0 -0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 25% 25% 50%
Observed-shots-based 91% 7% 2%
Diff 66% -19% -48%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 89 51 28 25
Defence 72 75 11 49
Overall 91 66 9 34


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