Lazio


4 : 0

Genoa


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

60%

Draw

22%

Away win

18%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

37%

Draw

31%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.1 0.9
Diff -0.8 0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 60% 22% 18%
Observed-shots-based 37% 31% 31%
Diff -23% 10% 13%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 32 99 51 17
Defence 49 83 68 1
Overall 35 100 65 0


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