Espanyol


0 : 2

Real Valladolid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

53%

Draw

24%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

28%

Draw

25%

Away win

47%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.6 1.9
Diff -0.1 0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 24% 23%
Observed-shots-based 28% 25% 47%
Diff -24% 1% 24%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 48 9 73 55
Defence 27 45 52 91
Overall 33 15 67 85


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