1. FC Köln


0 : 4

Hertha BSC


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

48%

Draw

22%

Away win

30%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

21%

Draw

27%

Away win

52%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 1.5
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.5
Diff -1.0 -0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 48% 22% 30%
Observed-shots-based 21% 27% 52%
Diff -27% 5% 22%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 28 18 51 98
Defence 49 2 72 82
Overall 33 1 67 99


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