1. FSV Mainz 05


0 : 1

VfL Wolfsburg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

38%

Draw

26%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

56%

Draw

31%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.2 0.5
Diff -0.2 -0.8

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 38% 26% 36%
Observed-shots-based 56% 31% 13%
Diff 18% 5% -23%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 47 13 28 76
Defence 72 24 53 87
Overall 63 7 37 93


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek