Lyon


0 : 1

Nantes


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

59%

Draw

23%

Away win

18%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

53%

Draw

31%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.2 0.5
Diff -0.6 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 59% 23% 18%
Observed-shots-based 53% 31% 16%
Diff -6% 8% -2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 37 14 41 73
Defence 59 27 63 86
Overall 45 10 55 90


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