Crystal Palace


2 : 0

Norwich City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

53%

Draw

22%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

73%

Draw

18%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.0 0.7
Diff 0.1 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 22% 24%
Observed-shots-based 73% 18% 9%
Diff 19% -4% -16%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 54 51 37 23
Defence 63 77 46 49
Overall 61 69 39 31


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