Everton


1 : 3

Manchester City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

16%

Draw

21%

Away win

63%

Away Goals

1.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.6

Home win

25%

Draw

20%

Away win

55%

Away Goals

3.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 0.8 1.9
Observed-shots-based 2.6 3.3
Diff 1.7 1.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 16% 21% 63%
Observed-shots-based 25% 20% 55%
Diff 9% -2% -8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 88 9 75 44
Defence 25 56 12 91
Overall 55 26 45 74


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