Bournemouth


2 : 2

West Ham United


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

53%

Draw

21%

Away win

26%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

36%

Draw

22%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

2.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.1 1.4
Observed-shots-based 2.1 2.3
Diff 0.1 0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 21% 26%
Observed-shots-based 36% 22% 42%
Diff -17% 1% 16%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 52 49 69 45
Defence 31 55 48 51
Overall 38 53 62 47


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