1. FC Union Berlin


1 : 2

Eintracht Frankfurt


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

31%

Draw

25%

Away win

44%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

19%

Draw

24%

Away win

57%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.5
Observed-shots-based 1.1 1.9
Diff -0.1 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 31% 25% 44%
Observed-shots-based 19% 24% 57%
Diff -12% -1% 13%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 48 50 59 57
Defence 41 43 52 50
Overall 41 44 59 56


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek