Genoa


0 : 0

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

39%

Draw

26%

Away win

34%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.3

Home win

2%

Draw

11%

Away win

87%

Away Goals

2.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.2
Observed-shots-based 0.3 2.1
Diff -1.1 0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 39% 26% 34%
Observed-shots-based 2% 11% 87%
Diff -37% -16% 53%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 21 38 71 3
Defence 29 97 79 62
Overall 17 93 83 7


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