Monaco


3 : 1

Nice


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

49%

Draw

24%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

71%

Draw

18%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.3 0.9
Diff 0.6 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 49% 24% 27%
Observed-shots-based 71% 18% 11%
Diff 22% -7% -16%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 64 70 43 59
Defence 57 41 36 30
Overall 65 64 35 36


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