Lazio


2 : 0

Parma


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

69%

Draw

19%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

78%

Draw

18%

Away win

5%

Away Goals

0.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.2 0.8
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.3
Diff -0.2 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 69% 19% 13%
Observed-shots-based 78% 18% 5%
Diff 9% -1% -8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 56 35 36
Defence 65 64 54 44
Overall 54 63 46 37


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