Milan


0 : 2

Internazionale


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

33%

Draw

28%

Away win

38%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

16%

Draw

24%

Away win

60%

Away Goals

1.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.2
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.7
Diff -0.2 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 28% 38%
Observed-shots-based 16% 24% 60%
Diff -17% -4% 21%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 45 19 63 61
Defence 37 39 55 81
Overall 36 21 64 79


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