Juventus


2 : 1

Verona


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

80%

Draw

14%

Away win

6%

Away Goals

0.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

40%

Draw

29%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.5 0.5
Observed-shots-based 1.8 1.6
Diff -0.7 1.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 80% 14% 6%
Observed-shots-based 40% 29% 31%
Diff -41% 15% 25%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 38 61 82 29
Defence 18 71 62 39
Overall 22 72 78 28


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