Torino


1 : 2

Lecce


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

62%

Draw

20%

Away win

18%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

55%

Draw

22%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.1 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.2 1.5
Diff 0.1 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 62% 20% 18%
Observed-shots-based 55% 22% 22%
Diff -7% 2% 5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 53 16 62 68
Defence 38 32 47 84
Overall 44 15 56 85


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek