Roma


4 : 2

Sassuolo


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

65%

Draw

19%

Away win

17%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

70%

Draw

17%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

1.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.3 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.5 1.2
Diff 0.2 0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 65% 19% 17%
Observed-shots-based 70% 17% 13%
Diff 5% -1% -4%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 54 86 52 79
Defence 48 21 46 14
Overall 52 65 48 35


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