Thank you for your patience and understanding.
Home Goals
1.6
Home win
40%
Draw
24%
Away win
36%
Away Goals
1.5
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.3
Home win
25%
Draw
24%
Away win
51%
Away Goals
1.9
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Diff | -0.2 | 0.4 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 40% | 24% | 36% |
Observed-shots-based | 25% | 24% | 51% |
Diff | -15% | -0% | 15% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 46 | 92 | 60 | 26 | |
Defence | 40 | 74 | 54 | 8 | |
Overall | 39 | 94 | 61 | 6 |
© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek