Wolverhampton Wanderers


2 : 5

Chelsea


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

33%

Draw

28%

Away win

39%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

22%

Draw

24%

Away win

54%

Away Goals

2.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.6 2.2
Diff 0.5 1.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 28% 39%
Observed-shots-based 22% 24% 54%
Diff -11% -4% 15%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 65 68 73 97
Defence 27 3 35 32
Overall 40 8 60 92


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