RB Leipzig


1 : 1

FC Bayern München


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

27%

Draw

23%

Away win

50%

Away Goals

1.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

42%

Draw

27%

Away win

32%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.8
Observed-shots-based 1.7 1.5
Diff 0.4 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 27% 23% 50%
Observed-shots-based 42% 27% 32%
Diff 14% 4% -18%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 61 28 44 37
Defence 56 63 39 72
Overall 62 45 38 55


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek